Asylum & Migration Statistics

Population Change

The 2001 census figures indicate that Scotland has a population of 5,062,011, which represents a decrease of almost 42,000 since 1995. As illustrated in the chart below, 19% of the population are aged under 16, with a slightly higher proportion aged over 60.

Chart 1: Percentage Breakdown of Population by Age (Source: 2001 Census)

Based on the 2005 Mid-year estimates, the population of Scotland has grown to 5,094,800. This is slightly up on the 2001 Census figure, suggesting a 1% population increase.

While this growth in population is expected to continue to 2015, the General Register Office for Scotland (GRO) predicts that the population will fall below five million by 2035. This conforms to a broader trend that has seen the population fall from more than 5.2 million in 1976:

Chart 2: Population projections, 1976-2044 (Source: GRO Scotland)

In addition to a falling population, it is also evident that Scotland has an ageing population. The consequence of this is that the size of the working-age population will shrink over the next thirty years in relation to the population as a whole.

Chart 3a: Population projections, broken down by age: 2004-2031 (Source: GRO Scotland)

Chart 3b: Population projections, broken down by age: 2004-2031 (Source: GRO Scotland)

Migration

The broader population projections are contingent on a range of variable factors, but one notable uncertainty is the level of future migration. Recent trends have been difficult to predict. GRO Scotland estimates that there has been a net intake of 26,085 over the last ten years. However, this broader trend masks a more recent increase in levels of migration: the average net intake over the last five years has been 10,000 people per year, and for the period 2004-05, the net intake was almost 20,000. Some of this can be attributed to the increasing number of migrants coming from the Eastern European EU accession states.

It is evident, then, that the identification of migration flows is a complex matter, which is subject to the following complicating factors:

There is no registration of population in the UK and hence no direct measure of migration. In some European countries (e.g. the Scandinavian countries) an administrative register greatly facilitates the measurement of migration;
The impact of illegal migration compounds measurement. By its very nature illegal migration is extremely difficult to measure and presents challenges in estimating migration accurately.

Nonetheless, it is possible to identify demographic change and migration flows by consulting various registers, surveys, and Government administrative sources. These include the International Passenger Survey and the number of National Insurance numbers allocated to new arrivals. The former is a large, multi-purpose survey that collects information from passengers as they enter or leave the UK. It is based on voluntary, face-to-face interviews with a sample of passengers travelling via the principal airports, sea routes and the Channel Tunnel. This information is helpful in generating estimates in relation to immigration to and from the UK. The most recent findings of this survey are detailed in the chart below:

Chart 4: Total internal migration to/from the UK (Source: International Passenger Survey)

As regards the number of foreign nationals arriving from the eight EU Accession states, information can be sourced from the Workers Registration Scheme (WRS). Nationals of the A8 countries who wish to take up employment in the UK are generally required to register with the WRS. While this is liable to generate an under-estimate (workers who are self-employed do not need to register, nor does it account for A8 migrants who choose not to register), it nonetheless allows for a considered demographic analysis.

In total there were 427,095 successful applicants to the Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) in the UK between 1st May 2004 and 30th June 2006. The majority of applicants were Polish (62%), followed by Lithuanians (12%) and Slovaks (10%).

Other EU countries witnessed a much smaller intake of A8 migrants. For instance, during 2005, a total of 8,671 people from EU member states (including the A8 countries) emigrated to Sweden. Of these 3,525 were Polish.

A8 nationals registered in almost every region of the UK. Anglia and London had the greatest number of applicants registering with, respectively, 15% (64,980) and 14% (58,550) of the total. Scotland had 32,135 registered workers (7.5% of the total).

It should be noted that the number of A8 nationals registering to work will not necessarily be representative of the total. Indeed, while there were 32,135 registrations in Scotland between 2004 and 2006, there were 34,931 National Insurance numbers allocated to A8 nationals over the same period. Even then, this does not account for the number of people who are working within the black economy.

The quarterly intake in Scotland over the period 2004-06, as identified through WRS, is detailed in the chart below:

Chart 5: A8 nationals registering to work n Scotland, 2004-06 (Source: Worker Registration Scheme, Home Office)

The graph above indicates that the number of A8 migrants has varied considerably over the two year period. This ebb and flow generates additional challenges for the planning of Local Authority services.

Socio-Economic Profile of A8 Migrants

The demographic breakdown of A8 migrants in the UK (identified through WRS) is as follows:

82% were aged 18-34 (However, within this bracket, the proportion of people aged 18-24 tends to swell during the summer months).
The male to female ratio over the period 2004-06 was 58:42.
7% of registered workers had dependents living with them. Among those who did have dependents, the average number was 1.3
The number of dependents as a proportion of the number of registered workers has increased from 6% in 2004 to 12% in 2006.

In terms of the working conditions of A8 nationals:

97% were working full-time;
78% were earning between £4.50 and £5.99 per hour;
49% of the total were in permanent employment (However, this varied widely between sectors – for instance, agriculture and catering had a high proportion of temporary workers (69% and 77% respectively.)

In relation to the welfare benefits that A8 nationals have applied for over the period 2004-06:

Of the 1,583 applications for Income Support, 193 passed the Right to Reside and Habitual Residence Tests;
Of the applications for 4,083 Income Based Job Seekers Allowance, 564 passed the Right to Reside and Habitual Residence Tests;
There were 21,114 applications for Tax Credits, of which 14,009 were approved.

As regards the employment that A8 nationals have been entering, the hospitality and agricultural sectors have absorbed the most workers:

Chart 6: Employment of A8 migrants by sector. (Source: Worker Registration Scheme, Home Office)

Relative to other parts of the UK, some sectors within Scotland have absorbed a higher proportion of immigrants. For instance, almost one in five A8 nationals working in the food processing industry in the UK work in Scotland. The Agricultural and Construction industries also have high proportions (both 12%). By contrast, as a proportion of the UK total, fewer A8 nationals are finding work in Scotland in the fields of Administration & Business, Entertainment and Retail.

Socio-Economic Profile of Asylum Seekers

As of August 2006, there were over 5,000 asylum seekers living in eleven different local authorities in Scotland. While Glasgow is currently the only local authority in Scotland that accommodates dispersed asylum seekers, there are 82 asylum seekers living with friends or relatives in ten other local authorities.

Over one third of all asylum seekers in Scotland are nationals of just four countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Iran, Pakistan, and Somalia.

Chart 7 – Nationalities of Asylum Seekers living in Glasgow (Source: Home Office, 2006)

While the vast majority of the asylum seeking community in Scotland lives in Glasgow, it accounts for less than 1% of the city’s total population. The proportion of people living in Glasgow who were born outside of the EU is 3.44%. The total population of Glasgow is 578,800.

There are over 1500 asylum seeking children attending school in Glasgow, two thirds of whom attend primary school.

81% of asylum seekers in Glasgow are accommodated by Glasgow City Council, with the remaining being accommodated by YMCA Glasgow and the Angel Group. Asylum seekers are provided with housing in various different parts of the city, as the graph below demonstrates:

Chart 8 – Dispersal of asylum seekers across Glasgow (households). (Source: Home Office, 20006)

The following statistics provide a summary of the numbers of asylum seekers in Scotland, as of August 2006.

There are currently 1770 main applicants (which amounts to 5,003 people);
Of these, there are 82 applicants who are not accommodated by the Border & Immigration Agency (BIA) but who receive subsistence support;
There are 42 individuals being accommodated by the Scottish Induction Service;
A total of 164 clients in Scotland are in receipt of Section 4 Support.

The Scottish Refugee Council has recently published research on destitution levels among asylum seekers in Glasgow. During February 2006, 103 individuals presented as destitute and were looking for help and support. Twenty-seven of the destitute asylum seekers also had dependents; a total of 51 dependents were recorded, 25 of whom were under the age of 18. As such, there was a minimum of 154 destitute asylum seekers and refugees living in Glasgow during February 2006. Of these:

68% were male;
The largest groups were from Iraq (21.6%), Iran (18.6%) and Somalia (8.8%);
The majority of people surveyed were in their twenties (36%). Almost 10% were younger than 20 years old. Only 17% of people surveyed were older than 50.

Socio-Economic Profile of Refugees

There is a lack of robust information about the number of refugees living in Scotland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the majority of refugees in Scotland live in Glasgow, with ‘national clusters’ organically forming in different parts of the city. Some of these clusters have sufficient mass to attract refugees from other parts of the UK. However, it is also acknowledged that this ‘pull’ factor is not unique to Glasgow and that other major cities with large numbers of refugees often attract refugees away from Glasgow.

The Department of Work and Pensions reports that 2080 refugees in Glasgow were registered with Jobcentre Plus during 2005. In addition, there are 500 children with refugee status in Glasgow schools, suggesting that the total figure for refugees living in Glasgow is in the region of 3,000 to 4,000.

Previous studies into the employability of refugees indicate that many will face social, economic, and financial exclusion. A Department of Work and Pensions survey indicated that:

Before arrival:

96% of refugees had participated in formal education;
56% had gained a qualification, while 23% had a degree;
42% were in employment, of which 14% were self-employed;
17% of respondents spoke English well.

Following arrival:

60% of refugees, many of whom participated in ESOL, speak English well;
15% of refugees are in education, while 3% are studying for a degree;
4% are involved in training;
29% of refugees are in employment, compared with 60% of the BME population;
Refugees’ hourly earnings were on average only 79% of those within the BME population; 11% of refugees were earning less than the National Minimum Wage;
29% had been involved in voluntary work in Britain.

One of the major findings of the study was that English language proficiency was a crucial factor in determining both labour market participation and the type of employment people had.